Tuesday, December 28, 2010

Q1 2011 projection

Revenue - $27,800,000,000
EPS - $6.61
iPhone unit sales - 18,350,000
iPod unit sales - 18,900,000
Mac unit sales - 4,468,000
iPad unit sales - 7,250,000
Gross margin percentage - 38.5%

What a quarter for Apple! How long will this go on? I'm saying Apple will surpass 100 billion in FY 2011. That's 10 billion more than my earlier post. I say this because I believe the iPad is going to explode even more than what I earlier stated. RIMM's tablet won't compete, but Android will, Windows eventually might, but will be very late to the party..

Also - with Verizon (unsubstantiated) going all in with the iPhone, it will propel Apple's revenue over the 100 billion mark.. See you on the 18th of January.

Thursday, September 30, 2010

Q4 10 numbers - Over the top

Hello Folks,

Apple will have their usual blow out quarter to end the fiscal year, and this will surprise no one. With a forward PE of 22, which is quite low in my humble opinion, this stock SHOULD skyrocket through the stratosphere..

My numbers:

iPods - - - - 9,750,000
iPhones - 10,466,160
iPads - - - - 5,227,200
Macs - - - - 4,056,000
EPS - - - - 4.40 / share
Revenue - 19.531 B
Gross Margin - 41.20%

Apple projected 18 billion with EPS of 3.44...

I made a trip into my local Apple store yesterday, and made all of the typical observations
  1. Packed house
  2. Blue shirted Apple geeks happily training new customers on the products.
  3. People walking out with various sized boxes - Looks like everything is selling - all products are selling.
  4. All product tables had an equal amount of attention. No one thing was getting more attention than others.
I will now go out on a limb with some bold predictions for 2011

  • Apple will open up the iPhone to other carriers in the first 6 months of 2011. They will not announce anything (of course) until the very last second. If they announce anything prematurely - it would kill their current sales through ATT. Of course they can't do that. You hear all of these conspiracy theories in blogs about Apple and other vendors, but if you think about it - it's quite simple. Remember we are talking about the kings of "pent up demand." Apple unveils the iPhone to one vendor, and it sets off a worldwide phenomenon and creates a paradigm shift in communications products. They hold it to one vendor, because they are not worried initially about taking over the world, they know they have a game changer, and they know they will set records with ATT. They also know that by limiting the partners, that they can control their growth in tiers. Let's call this the 3rd tier of iPhone growth. Tier 1 is the initial US rollout. Tier 2 is the international roll out, which has taken a couple of years, and it won't be be complete, until they conquer India and China. Tier 3 will be the inclusion of T-Mobile, Verizon, and Sprint in the US. My opinion, is this will be timed to coincide with the next iteration of iPhone 4, which will have an antenna upgrade.
  • Apple will sell 33 million iPads in FY11. It's first full fiscal year of iPad sales. Just to put that in perspective - Apple sold 11 million, then 20 million, and now 35 million in it's 3rd full fiscal year of sales for the iPhone.
  • Apple will sell 52 million iPhones in FY11, a 45% increase YOY.
  • Apple will sell 17 million MACs in FY11, a 25% increase YOY. There WILL be an effect from the iPad. In my opinion, the iPad effect is going to continue to fuel growth to the MAC, but not at the 33% growth rate we have been seeing on average. MACs growth will continue, but only at 25%..
  • 90 Billion revenue in FY11 - 40% increase
  • EPS for FY2011 - $22.50
  • Stock price January 2012 - $400.00

Well that's it for now.. I'm still recuperating from surgery to have my kidney removed (Cancer) but am doing well, and will be back to work in a couple of weeks..

Thanks for reading,
Dennis Hildebrand

Thursday, September 16, 2010

Update - Apple trends - climbing mountains and kidney cancer

Hi Folks,

Wow.. much has happened - my life is just so full of drama -

I'm working on my aapl numbers now for Q4 - it's really looking good. Today the stock closed at a new high again. I believe that this will be another routine blow out quarter, but this time aapl will be propelled to over 300 a share by years end. The iphone 4 antennae fiasco and over arching economic forces held our beloved shares at bay this quarter.

This will not be true for the Q4 report and the holiday season. All categories will fly off the shelves, (with media frenzy firmly intact) and then in 2011 Apple will be propelled by iPad upgrades, and the long awaited announcement by Jobs to open up the iPhone to other vendors in the US. I actually believe T Mobile will be first.

Additionally, stay tuned for my posting of - what I believe - is going to be a 30% stock market roar upwards in 2011. This will be driven by the historical trend of "The year before the election year". This is a fascinating phenomenon that has held true for many decades.. I've got to pull out some old stuff but believe me - it's interesting. Here's the deal:

If this trend holds true, and I believe that it will, then apple will explode, and I predict that aapl will see 380 by end of 2011.

More to come -

About me.. I've recently been diagnosed with kidney cancer, and am scheduled to have my kidney yanked out on Wednesday September 22nd. Wow.. crazy - we luckily caught it early, and I will blog about the entire experience on one of my other links.. My prognosis is excellent, and the cancer is contained within my kidney.. while I recover, I'll have plenty of time to blog..

Above is a recent pic of me way high up on MT Hood - I'll be climbing this mountain again after I recover..


Sunday, July 11, 2010

Q3 Numbers, Herd Mentality and the 80/20 rule..

My projections.. (below)

I think that the iphone transition to the "4" hurt the iPhone numbers, even though it was a crazy successful launch, I believe that many people really held back until the "4" launched. Even with that, I'm still saying they sold over 10 million iphones. I originally posted on June 6th that they would sell over 12 million, but the iphone really lost momentum in June due to people waiting for the launch of "the 4".

I've been watching these trends obsessively for the last 3 years, and I'm of the belief that Apple has hit a tipping point due to worldwide phenom = sales.. This company is going to set a new record every quarter.. mainly due to the international dynamic. They truly are the masters at controlling "pent up demand."

I believe this because of herd mentality and the 80 / 20 rule..

Apple dissenters believe that the walled garden and the way that Apple obsessively controls their eco system will be their downfall. Techno geeks believe the same thing, (unless their Apple geeks).

I believe this..

80% of the people in the world think nothing of techno babble - all they want is a device that works, and don't even care how or why it works.. as long as it delivers what they need. This is especially true for baby boomers.. Apple is way ahead of the game due to iTunes..

Additionally, that same 80% don't care at all about the Apple vs Android, or Apple vs Microsoft, or Apple vs the world argument. Again, massive numbers of people will buy Apple. Android will be phenomenal as well, and all this will do is fuel Apple's engine.. I'm of the mindset that competition from Android is healthy for Apple - both of these companies will win big.

Also most people aren't investors, (other than blindly investing in 401k mutual funds) - their just consumers and never bother with these arguments on these blogs.

Whatever the case, it's fun to watch it all unfold, and I just wish this economy would turn around so that AAPL could make a real run.. seems like that's the only thing holding us back..

My Q3 projection

iPods - 10.1m
iPhones - 10.41m
iPads - 3.45m
Macs - 3.45m
EPS - $3.62
Revenue - 15.087b

Friday, June 11, 2010

New iPhone reveals what's in store for next iPad iteration

Hello Folks,

Just think about it. The iphone now has a front facing camera with "Face Time" for Jetson's like face to face communicating. What is the obvious next step? Bring it to a bigger screen - Of Course!

Expect all of the resolution upgrades that the iPhone got to be passed on to the iPad as well. I was first thinking that the next iteration would happen at WWDC 2011, but now I'm thinking that they need to accelerate this thing to January / February 2011 to offset the excitement behind the Android tablets..

Many analysts have upgraded price targets for the stock, ranging anywhere from 325 - 360 a share. I definitely agree, especially with the iPhone exploding in international markets - Japan in particular - as the picture at below illustrates - iPhone freaks lined up for miles in Tokyo.

Right now, I'm wondering if my iPhone estimates are too conservative. I'm predicting 130% growth year over year - YIKES stay tuned..

Sunday, June 6, 2010

Apple June Quarter update

Hello Folks,

This is my first blog entry in what will eventually be many... Just wanted to put my revenue numbers up and on record. Here it is..

iPods - 10.1 million
iPhones - 12.08 million
iPads - 3.45 million
Macs - 3.4 million
EPS - $3.76
Revenue - 15.57 Billion
Gross Margin - 40.50%

This is going to be an absolute blow-out quarter, the iPad IS really everything Jobs said it would be - I can't wait to see the next generation which will probably be WWDC 2011.

I'm hoping for some exciting announcements tomorrow.. What I would really like to hear is that Apple will open up iPhones to a couple more carriers in the US.
Talk about an explosion when that happens! - More insights to come..

Dennis - 6/6/2010