Thursday, September 30, 2010

Q4 10 numbers - Over the top

Hello Folks,

Apple will have their usual blow out quarter to end the fiscal year, and this will surprise no one. With a forward PE of 22, which is quite low in my humble opinion, this stock SHOULD skyrocket through the stratosphere..

My numbers:

iPods - - - - 9,750,000
iPhones - 10,466,160
iPads - - - - 5,227,200
Macs - - - - 4,056,000
EPS - - - - 4.40 / share
Revenue - 19.531 B
Gross Margin - 41.20%

Apple projected 18 billion with EPS of 3.44...

I made a trip into my local Apple store yesterday, and made all of the typical observations
  1. Packed house
  2. Blue shirted Apple geeks happily training new customers on the products.
  3. People walking out with various sized boxes - Looks like everything is selling - all products are selling.
  4. All product tables had an equal amount of attention. No one thing was getting more attention than others.
I will now go out on a limb with some bold predictions for 2011

  • Apple will open up the iPhone to other carriers in the first 6 months of 2011. They will not announce anything (of course) until the very last second. If they announce anything prematurely - it would kill their current sales through ATT. Of course they can't do that. You hear all of these conspiracy theories in blogs about Apple and other vendors, but if you think about it - it's quite simple. Remember we are talking about the kings of "pent up demand." Apple unveils the iPhone to one vendor, and it sets off a worldwide phenomenon and creates a paradigm shift in communications products. They hold it to one vendor, because they are not worried initially about taking over the world, they know they have a game changer, and they know they will set records with ATT. They also know that by limiting the partners, that they can control their growth in tiers. Let's call this the 3rd tier of iPhone growth. Tier 1 is the initial US rollout. Tier 2 is the international roll out, which has taken a couple of years, and it won't be be complete, until they conquer India and China. Tier 3 will be the inclusion of T-Mobile, Verizon, and Sprint in the US. My opinion, is this will be timed to coincide with the next iteration of iPhone 4, which will have an antenna upgrade.
  • Apple will sell 33 million iPads in FY11. It's first full fiscal year of iPad sales. Just to put that in perspective - Apple sold 11 million, then 20 million, and now 35 million in it's 3rd full fiscal year of sales for the iPhone.
  • Apple will sell 52 million iPhones in FY11, a 45% increase YOY.
  • Apple will sell 17 million MACs in FY11, a 25% increase YOY. There WILL be an effect from the iPad. In my opinion, the iPad effect is going to continue to fuel growth to the MAC, but not at the 33% growth rate we have been seeing on average. MACs growth will continue, but only at 25%..
  • 90 Billion revenue in FY11 - 40% increase
  • EPS for FY2011 - $22.50
  • Stock price January 2012 - $400.00

Well that's it for now.. I'm still recuperating from surgery to have my kidney removed (Cancer) but am doing well, and will be back to work in a couple of weeks..

Thanks for reading,
Dennis Hildebrand

Thursday, September 16, 2010

Update - Apple trends - climbing mountains and kidney cancer

Hi Folks,

Wow.. much has happened - my life is just so full of drama -

I'm working on my aapl numbers now for Q4 - it's really looking good. Today the stock closed at a new high again. I believe that this will be another routine blow out quarter, but this time aapl will be propelled to over 300 a share by years end. The iphone 4 antennae fiasco and over arching economic forces held our beloved shares at bay this quarter.

This will not be true for the Q4 report and the holiday season. All categories will fly off the shelves, (with media frenzy firmly intact) and then in 2011 Apple will be propelled by iPad upgrades, and the long awaited announcement by Jobs to open up the iPhone to other vendors in the US. I actually believe T Mobile will be first.

Additionally, stay tuned for my posting of - what I believe - is going to be a 30% stock market roar upwards in 2011. This will be driven by the historical trend of "The year before the election year". This is a fascinating phenomenon that has held true for many decades.. I've got to pull out some old stuff but believe me - it's interesting. Here's the deal:

If this trend holds true, and I believe that it will, then apple will explode, and I predict that aapl will see 380 by end of 2011.

More to come -

About me.. I've recently been diagnosed with kidney cancer, and am scheduled to have my kidney yanked out on Wednesday September 22nd. Wow.. crazy - we luckily caught it early, and I will blog about the entire experience on one of my other links.. My prognosis is excellent, and the cancer is contained within my kidney.. while I recover, I'll have plenty of time to blog..

Above is a recent pic of me way high up on MT Hood - I'll be climbing this mountain again after I recover..