Sunday, July 11, 2010

Q3 Numbers, Herd Mentality and the 80/20 rule..

My projections.. (below)

I think that the iphone transition to the "4" hurt the iPhone numbers, even though it was a crazy successful launch, I believe that many people really held back until the "4" launched. Even with that, I'm still saying they sold over 10 million iphones. I originally posted on June 6th that they would sell over 12 million, but the iphone really lost momentum in June due to people waiting for the launch of "the 4".

I've been watching these trends obsessively for the last 3 years, and I'm of the belief that Apple has hit a tipping point due to worldwide phenom = sales.. This company is going to set a new record every quarter.. mainly due to the international dynamic. They truly are the masters at controlling "pent up demand."

I believe this because of herd mentality and the 80 / 20 rule..

Apple dissenters believe that the walled garden and the way that Apple obsessively controls their eco system will be their downfall. Techno geeks believe the same thing, (unless their Apple geeks).

I believe this..

80% of the people in the world think nothing of techno babble - all they want is a device that works, and don't even care how or why it works.. as long as it delivers what they need. This is especially true for baby boomers.. Apple is way ahead of the game due to iTunes..

Additionally, that same 80% don't care at all about the Apple vs Android, or Apple vs Microsoft, or Apple vs the world argument. Again, massive numbers of people will buy Apple. Android will be phenomenal as well, and all this will do is fuel Apple's engine.. I'm of the mindset that competition from Android is healthy for Apple - both of these companies will win big.

Also most people aren't investors, (other than blindly investing in 401k mutual funds) - their just consumers and never bother with these arguments on these blogs.

Whatever the case, it's fun to watch it all unfold, and I just wish this economy would turn around so that AAPL could make a real run.. seems like that's the only thing holding us back..

My Q3 projection

iPods - 10.1m
iPhones - 10.41m
iPads - 3.45m
Macs - 3.45m
EPS - $3.62
Revenue - 15.087b

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