Sunday, August 19, 2012

My September 1 2013 share price for Apple

Today TTM earnings are at 42.55
Apple will grow earnings 53% to $65.00 TTM earnings at Sept 1, 2013.
Current PE is at 15.23
I’m giving Apple a PE of 14 on Sept 1, 2013.
$65.00 x 14 = $910.00 - That is 40% share price appreciation to go with 54% projected earnings growth.

My share price projection for Sept 1 2013 = $910

This feels somewhat conservative, but it feels right.  What’s amazing to me is the fact that Apple reported a disappointing Q3 quarter in most people’s eyes, but here we are 1 month after reporting and sitting on the all time high, and MAJOR MAJOR catalysts right around the corner.  There have been media reports that Apple will sell 250 million iPhone 5’s, and with the iPad mini coming on board before Christmas….  well, let’s just say The immediate future is bright. 

For Q4 - my rough numbers are:

iPhones = 23.5 million
iPads = 20 million
Macs = 5 million
iPods = 6.5 million
iTunes / software = 3.5 million
Rev = 38.25 b
EPS = 10.56

iPhones - This is based on 2 weeks of iPhone 5 sales to boost what will be viewed positively - based on woeful 4S sales and overall number greatly lifted on what I hope will be documented iPhone launch sales records reported.

My FY13 Q1 projections remain the same:
72 billion rev - 22.50 EPS (57 million iPhones / 33 million iPads)

FY13 Q2 - 18.00 EPS
FY13 Q3 - 14.00 EPS

I’m figuring sequential decline from Q2 - Q3, based on what happened this year, however that could change based on what occurs with iPad mini, iTV, iWallet etc etc. - My numbers above assume none of that.

Thanks for checking in and let me know what you think.

Dennis Hildebrand