Sunday, January 20, 2013

Q1 13 - The most important earnings report of all.

Happy New Year!

Some updates - Some times you just have to turn off the noise.

Other than PED's quarterly smack down, I haven't been posting, and have really almost completely stopped participating in my favorite forum The Braeburn Group.  I have a couple of reasons for this:

  1. All of the negative news releases are depressing. It's come to a point of ludicrousness.  Yeah I know, that's not even a word, but I don't care because that's how it feels. How bad could it be?  Apple has been growing earnings, and continuing to launch popular products that sell extremely well.  It just seems as if the world is looking for Apple to fail, and so many are clamoring for FUD.  I get tired of hearing it, and reading about it.
  2. I have started a new job, and my total concentration is needed in navigating a successful transition.  The publishing company that I work for has gone to a 100% outsourcing model for our products, which are printed products, music CD's, and marketing materials.  This also includes an intense focus on a digital publishing transformation.  Very exciting, and requires my 100% focus.  The recent drop in the share price, coupled with all the nonsense being published about Apple is incredibly distracting.  Turn it off.

With that being said, I do have a set of numbers to share, and I'll do that here and now.  First let's look at what happened last year, compared with what I predicted.  As you will see, I underestimated by a large margin on EPS, but hit some of the metrics pretty accurately.

 Dennis prediction                 Actual

iPhones - 34m       37.04m -  missed by 3million - (killed me)                                                                    
iPads - 15m           15.4m   -  missed by 400k
iPods - 15m           15m      - dead nuts
Macs - 5.25m         5.2m    - missed by 50k
Rev - 43.36b          46.33b  - missed by 3b! (iPhones)
EPS - 11.59          13.87    - missed by $2.28 (iPhones and GM)

GM - 42.3%           44.7% - missed by 2.4%  

My iPhone estimates missed by 3 million and change, which of course is why I missed the revenue by 3 billion.  Also, my gross margin was off by a couple of percentage points which really affected the accuracy of my EPS number.  My iPads / iPods / and MAC numbers were VERY close.  In fact, I hit the iPod number right on the money - 

Here are my numbers for Q1 13:

Revenues: $63,485,000,000
Earnings:   $16.33
iPhone unit sales: 51m
iPod unit sales: 11.5m
Mac unit sales: 5.5m
iPad unit sales: 32m
GM%: 39%
Compared against my peers, these numbers are extremely bullish.  In fact, my iPad number is the highest of all participants in the quarterly smack down on Fortune.  I'm sticking with it.  I have said all along that I believe the iPad will overtake the iPhone in unit sales eventually. The only fly in my proverbial ointment, is if the mini cannibalized the regular sized pads.

Everything will be revealed Wednesday.  I think that Apple will need an EPS number north of 15 to be viewed positively.  Street consensus has actually called for a YOY decline in EPS.  This could bode well for us being that the expectations are usually extraordinarily high..  We shall see.  


  1. Thanks Dennis, I've been waiting for your numbers. My options are already committed but you give me a refreshing confidence to enjoy over the next few days.


  2. Anxiously awaiting the earnings report in a little bit.