Wednesday, June 27, 2012

Q3 2012 Estimates

iPhones - 32,000,000
Macs - 4,620,000
iPads - 21,000,000
iPods - 6,500,000

Total Revenue: 42,231,100,000
EPS: 12.82 
Gross Margin: 46.0%

The above are my estimates for the June quarter for Apple... I submitted them to the Braeburn group yesterday evening.  When the average is published, I'll post a link here.  My Highlights:

Revenue 42.231 billion 

This is only a 48% YOY increase in performance.  Last year at this time, Apple posted revenue of 28.571 billion.  The last 4 quarter YOY percentages are: 82% - 39% - 73% - 59% 

That 82% was last year's Q3.  If we were to see a performance of 82% revenue growth again this Q3, we would be at 52 billion in revenue..  52 billion revenue in one quarter will happen - but not until Q1 13, but it won't be 52 billion - It will be 70 billion and that equates to 56% growth YOY.  That's about how I see the YOY revenue growth for a while, settling in at the 50% range, which is nothing to sneeze at when you are talking about this size of number.

EPS - 12.82

65% YOY growth. Compared to prior quarters, this is actually conservative. I'll go back 8 quarters on this one starting with Q3 10. 75% - 68% - 75% - 92% - 122% - 52% - 116% - 92%.  The only EPS percentage below 65% is the Q4 11 miss due to the delay of the iPhone 4s. I have no problem with 65% YOY growth, and I'm confident this will be achieved.

iPhones - 32 million; Revenue = 20.672 billion

32 million represents 57% YOY growth, and -10% sequentially.  The growth in this category is moderate (historically speaking) due to potential buyers holding off for the much anticipated iPhone 5 with 4G LTE.  In Q4, we will be lucky to see this number if the 5 doesn't launch until October.  We can only hope for an early September launch to boost the Q4 iPhone numbers, while staving off the Android / Samsung onslaught. 

Macs - 4.620 million; Revenue = 5.913 billion

17% growth YOY, and 5% sequentially.  The upgrade of the macbook line will help this category, these growth rates are typical of the Mac line of computers, unlike the rest of the PC makers flailing 
around in single digit growth, if not negative growth, due to the popularity of the iPad.

iPads - 21 millionRevenue = 11.025 billion

Apples first 20 million iPad unit quarter should happen right here, with a total units sold of 21 million. With an average ASP of 525 due to the high demand of the iPad 2, total revenue will be just over half of what the iPhone produces.  Apple most likely won't break out these numbers, but I believe that Apple will sell 7 million of the lowest level iPad 2.

iPods - 6.5 millionRevenue = 1.020 billion

The iPods continue to decline at -14% YOY, but are still big sellers for children that are not yet old enough to have a phone.  We are truly raising the "APP generation".  10 years from now, when the world's 8 - 10 year olds are 18 - 20, the App TV generation should be in full swing, with Apple TV fully integrated into people's lives as buying content ala carte becomes the norm. 

Peripherals - Revenue = 600 million 
Software - Revenue = 800 million 
Music / Other - Revenue = 2.2 billion

Above is the rest of the revenue story, with Music / other actually eclipsing iPod revenue, which I believe is going to be an even bigger story in the years to come, due to iCloud, and total convergence when iTV finally arrives.  I haven't got the numbers in front of me, but I plan my next post to be about the growth over the last 5 years in this category, complete with YOY percentages.

Fiscal year end:
Revenue = 170 billion 
EPS = 52.49

I revised EPS downward from my price projection post, due to the iPhone 5 most likely NOT launching until October.  Obviously if I hear otherwise, I will move back to 54.69. 

I am long AAPL


  1. Great set of numbers Dennis. I like your explanations for how you arrived at those numbers.

  2. I look forward to your quarterly posts and always amazed at your accuracy. Thankyou.

    Go Apple Go!!

  3. Hi Denny

    Any thoughts on this article?

    Seems to predict a much lower Mac number...

  4. Hey Adam,

    I'm holding strong at 17% growth... It's always difficult to seperate hype from over conservatism. My numbers have been running a little on the high side for the last view quarters, so I'm really trying to be objective. However the Mac is my most accurate category, the iPhone is the one I struggle to hit. In my objectivity, I'm still a little high on the independent side as far as overall revenue and EPS. The Braeburn index average for Macs is 4,499,242. I suspect that the number will be north of 4.5 million. Sorry I took so long to respond.