Thursday, March 15, 2012

Preliminary Q2 numbers

iPhones - 38,500,000
Macs - 4,750,000
iPads -13,750,000
iPods - 7,500,000

Total Revenue: 44,065,000,000

EPS: 13.11 

Gross Margin: 44.4%

Apple will be reporting the numbers again around the 3rd week of April as usual.  We at the Independent AAPL analysts are getting our spreadsheets ready.  This is my second go round this quarter.  I started with iPads at 12 million a month ago, but I just bumped that up to 13.750 based on the aggressive rollout, and the Tim Cook factor. I also bumped up my iPhones estimates by 1/2 mil.

Now that Tim Cook is unabated by Mr Jobs - I mean that respectfully - I believe that we are going to see even more aggressive growth.  Mr Cook, in his own words, will continue to "make big bets" on the ramp up to product launches. It seems that even the mighty Mr Cook can't bet high enough for the mass hysteria to an Apple product launch.

In going through the numbers in Q2: 

  • At 38.5 million iPhones shipped the YOY growth comes in at 106% and sequentially up 4% - Last years growth percentages were 113% and 13%.  The Q1 numbers this year, were such a massive blowout, that I'm taking the sequential percentage number down a skosh.  Last year in this period, we sold 18.6 million iPhones.  For FY 12 - I'm at 150 million iPhones shipped (+108%)
  • MACs at 4.750 million is 26% YOY growth, and -9% sequentially. Last years total in this time frame was 3.760m.  For FY 12 - I'm at 20.45 million MACs shipped (+21%)
  • iPads at 13.750 mil - thats 193% YOY and -11% sequentially. For FY 12 - I'm at 62 million iPads shipped (+92%)
  • iPods at 7.5 mil.  Thats -17% YOY and -108% sequentially. For FY 12 - I'm at 34.5 million iPods shipped (-18%)
  • Revenue at 44.065 billion is up 79% YOY and down 5% sequentially.  For FY 12 - I'm at 182 b (+68%)
  • EPS at 13.11 is a 105% increase YOY and down a mere 6% sequentially. For FY 12 I'm at $56 (+102%)
Be aware  - The last time I made yearly predictions like this, in my commentary, my feeling was that I was being very aggressive..  well I got the MACs and iPads right on, but missed to the downside on everything else. Especially iPhones, revenue, and EPS.  Its here, if you want to check it out.  

I will update my estimates and post the final numbers before I ship them off to PED for the quarterly smack down.

Dennis Hildebrand

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