Tuesday, January 24, 2012

Apple's Blowout Q1 - How I did

This is what I sent into Fortune.com (PED)

   Dennis prediction                 Actual
iPhones - 34m       37.04m -  missed by 3million - (killed me)                                                                    
iPads - 15m           15.4m   -  missed by 400k
iPods - 15m           15m      - dead nuts
Macs - 5.25m         5.2m    - missed by 50k
Rev - 43.36b          46.33b  - missed by 3b! (iPhones)
EPS - 11.59          13.87    - missed by $2.28 (iPhones and GM)

GM - 42.3%           44.7% - missed by 2.4%  

My iPhone estimates missed by 3 million and change, which of course is why I missed the revenue by 3 billion.  Also, my gross margin was off by a couple of percentage points which really affected the accuracy of my EPS number.  My iPads / iPods / and MAC numbers were VERY close.  In fact, I hit the iPod number right on the money - Last time that I happened I saw my name on CNBC..

This was really an amazing quarter - I really thought my iPhone number was going to be close..  It just goes to show how true it is that Apple is the true master of pent up demand.  I like what Tim Cook says about Apple's iCloud being a strategy, as opposed to just posting a number.

For me - Apple's cloud has changed my life for the better.  The auto synch and back up has convinced me that I need look nowhere else for my digital needs.  I like things that make my life simple - not complicated.

These numbers are proof in the pudding that this strategy for the Apple eco-system is just going to grow and grow and grow.  iCloud in China?  with 300 million users.. my gosh.. imagine the sheer volume of IOS devices over there, and we are just in the beginning stages of this thing.

Congratulations to all Apple users and investors




  1. where've you been?!?

  2. Sorry about that - I'm selling my house and experiencing drastic changes in my job life... very hectic - I'm back now, and hope to be posting once a week or so..

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