Sunday, April 24, 2011

Scoreboard time

We made it through another smackdown event (unscathed) and it's high time that I recap this event.

Outta the gate, I guess the first thing to mention is the quarter itself. The only disappointment that can be seen in the numbers is the iPad units sold. I projected just short of 7 million units sold, as did many of my blogger and AFB compadres.  Is there safety in numbers?  Well no not really, but I believe that we all are a little bit miffed about Apple only selling 4.69 million units.  Almost all of us had the revenue well over 25 billion, and the shortfall in iPads is the reason a lot of us missed.

Still - At the end of the day... us amateurs ruled, and put the pros to shame - Much thanks to PED for publishing the results in his national publication.

On revenue and EPS, I came in 12th (of 48)
All categories - I finished 20th (of 48)

My 12th place finish in the main 2 metrics of revenue and EPS, put me high on the Deagol overall rank, I'm proud to say - Top place if I'm reading correctly.  You can read about that here, along with his excellent analysis and breakdown of the quarter and the smackdown. Be sure to check out his cool scatter chart that provides an excellent visual to the overall results.  I'm closest to the bullseye! Does that make me first place?

The best news of the post earnings call was the fact that AAPL climbed to 350 and change on Thursday.. (from as low as 326 earlier in the week).  My opinion, is we will blow through the all time high by the end of this week, and continue to climb as new products release..

Ok - let's see how I did:

Dennis - 25.505b
Actual -  24.670b

I overshot by less than a billion!  (In AAPL parlance, 1 billion is a small number)  Last quarter I missed by over 1 billion, so that's measurable improvement.  B

Dennis - 6.21
Actual - 6.40

Undershot by 19 cents..  Last quarter I overshot by .18 cents...  didn't improve but still a B

Dennis -  17.36m
Actual -   18.65m

I undershot by 1.29m..  Last quarter I overshot by 2.11m... Measurable improvement B-

Dennis -  9.98m
Actual -   9.09m

Overshot by 890 thousand.. Last quarter I undershot by 550 thousand..  My performance declined in this category, but not by much ..  B-

Dennis - 3.87 m
Actual  - 3.76 m

Overshot by 110,000 -  Last quarter, I overshot by 340,000 -  More measurable improvement and I continue to excel in this category..  A

Dennis - 6.95
Actual -  4.69

Overshot by 2.26 million.. Yikes... no safety in numbers - Last quarter I came within 80,000! (overshot)  I could make a lot of excuses here but I won't.  A miss is a miss.. F+ 
How's that for a positive spin eh?  An F+....

Gross margin
Dennis - 40.2
Actual -   41.4

Undershot by 120 basis points - Last quarter I hit it right on the money!  No CNBC for me this time...   C

I give myself a B as an overall grade for Q2 FY11 - (even with the ipad F+)

Like I said above.. after the day is done, and Tim Cook and gang report what they did....  The bottom line is - it was a BLOW OUT quarter..  I don't care how you try to spin it -  24 and a half billion is an incredible number..  So is $6.40..  I'm running out of superlatives to describe this companies performance.

I will admit that I engaged in a little market timing and sold all of my shares before they slid all the way down.. then got back in. I now have several more shares than I had before. That makes me happy. I'm all in now and will be unless something happens...  The stop loss tool is a wonderful thing.

My price targets remain the same.. (1 revision - May 1st low is 350 instead of 335..)

      Date            Low         High        Target

May 1, 2011       350          400            380
Aug 1, 2011       370           430           415
Nov 1, 2011       415           480           460
Feb 1, 2012       460           540           520

It's going to be a great summer!
Thanks for checking in..

Dennis Hildebrand


  1. Dennis, the scatter chart in my article where you appear right on the bullseye is measuring bias, that is, the average deviation resulting from balancing all errors including their signs (overshoots and undershoots as you say here) over the 4 quarters you've participated. Your 12th place on PED's post is based on the average absolute error (eliminates the signs and thus all errors add up regardless of over or undershoots) for this last quarter, as was your third place in my post from before the report for the prior 3 quarters.

    So yes over 4 quarters you're on top on the former measure which I call bias. On the later measure (and ignoring analysts with just one quarter) you're still third behind Foster and Muller (who traded positions). Sorry for the confusion and hope this clears it up.

    Thanks for linking and the kind words about my analysis and chart.

  2. Ok - I get it now Deagol. Thanks for clearing that up. Heck, I'm just happy to be involved.