March 1, 2014 price target

Happy March 1st!

Readers of this blog will notice a pretty radical change in sentiment here.  I have been giving AAPL much, much thought, and this is the most realistic post that I have made in a year, I believe.  If AAPL does what I think its going to do, I will get back in at the sub 400 level..  I see a very rough 3 - months ahead, and a comeback beginning in the midst of the Christmas quarter.  

On a personal note, I have backed off tremendously on my obsession with AAPL.  I believe that I was too involved, and spent too much time, and basically needed to unplug and come down to earth..  This has been a good change.  I want to post more on this blog, and would like to post some different ideas on stocks, and would love to hear some other ideas from you guys. I'll still post about AAPL, and participate in PED's smack-down, but hopefully with my feet planted firmly on the ground.  Below is my post in the Braeburn Group.

I welcome any / all comments.

AAPL Price on March 1 2014 = 511.50
TTM earnings March 1 2014 = 46.50  (PE = 11)
YOY EPS growth = 5.39%
Revenue growth = 5%

EPS by quarter - starting in Q2 = 12.00 / 10.00 / 9.50 / 15.00

This is going to be a difficult year for Apple.  This company will have to move mountains to get a PE north of 12.  The negative sentiment, FUD, coupled with the Android dominance, and emerging windows smartphone / tablet marketshare will flatline Apple’s growth. I believe the Amazon line up of Kindles will also see incremental growth. I do believe the growth will pick up again to as much as the 20 percentile range in the summer of 2014 when an Apple TV is launched, and growth in China takes hold.  I also see investor sentiment changing around the same time.  In the near term, I see AAPL dipping to the sub 400 level, especially after reporting fractionally negative growth in the Q2 earnings report. I see the stock coming back in the Christmas quarter because of the annual cycle of device upgrades. However, I do not see any large moves evidenced by my March 1, 14 price target.  I do not currently own any AAPL shares.

Dennis Hildebrand

"We have met the enemy...and he is us."

                                                        -Pogo