I'd like to take a brief time out from Apple talk to send those that are interested in some great information about cancer recovery or people that are engaged in any type of cancer battle. This is from David Haas, he is a fellow blogger that has contacted me, and asked if I would publish some of his great stuff. I checked it out, and this guy definitely has some good information..
Please check it out
Why exercise is important for cancer patients
You will find more links to his various blogs on this page
Thanks,
Dennis
Monday, February 13, 2012
Tuesday, January 24, 2012
Apple's Blowout Q1 - How I did
This is what I sent into Fortune.com (PED)
Dennis prediction Actual
My iPhone estimates missed by 3 million and change, which of course is why I missed the revenue by 3 billion. Also, my gross margin was off by a couple of percentage points which really affected the accuracy of my EPS number. My iPads / iPods / and MAC numbers were VERY close. In fact, I hit the iPod number right on the money - Last time that I happened I saw my name on CNBC..
This was really an amazing quarter - I really thought my iPhone number was going to be close.. It just goes to show how true it is that Apple is the true master of pent up demand. I like what Tim Cook says about Apple's iCloud being a strategy, as opposed to just posting a number.
For me - Apple's cloud has changed my life for the better. The auto synch and back up has convinced me that I need look nowhere else for my digital needs. I like things that make my life simple - not complicated.
These numbers are proof in the pudding that this strategy for the Apple eco-system is just going to grow and grow and grow. iCloud in China? with 300 million users.. my gosh.. imagine the sheer volume of IOS devices over there, and we are just in the beginning stages of this thing.
Congratulations to all Apple users and investors
Dennis
Dennis prediction Actual
iPhones - 34m 37.04m - missed by 3million - (killed me)
iPads - 15m 15.4m - missed by 400k
iPods - 15m 15m - dead nuts
Macs - 5.25m 5.2m - missed by 50k
Rev - 43.36b 46.33b - missed by 3b! (iPhones)
EPS - 11.59 13.87 - missed by $2.28 (iPhones and GM)
GM - 42.3% 44.7% - missed by 2.4%
My iPhone estimates missed by 3 million and change, which of course is why I missed the revenue by 3 billion. Also, my gross margin was off by a couple of percentage points which really affected the accuracy of my EPS number. My iPads / iPods / and MAC numbers were VERY close. In fact, I hit the iPod number right on the money - Last time that I happened I saw my name on CNBC..
This was really an amazing quarter - I really thought my iPhone number was going to be close.. It just goes to show how true it is that Apple is the true master of pent up demand. I like what Tim Cook says about Apple's iCloud being a strategy, as opposed to just posting a number.
For me - Apple's cloud has changed my life for the better. The auto synch and back up has convinced me that I need look nowhere else for my digital needs. I like things that make my life simple - not complicated.
These numbers are proof in the pudding that this strategy for the Apple eco-system is just going to grow and grow and grow. iCloud in China? with 300 million users.. my gosh.. imagine the sheer volume of IOS devices over there, and we are just in the beginning stages of this thing.
Congratulations to all Apple users and investors
Dennis
Wednesday, October 19, 2011
Wisdom
I'll post about Apple's latest quarter in a day or 2, but I just stumbled on this nugget, which has nothing to do with Apple or investing.. Or does it?
The Dalai Lamai, when asked what surprised him most about humanity, answered:
"Man. Because he sacrifices his health in order to make money. Then he sacrifices money to recuperate his health. And then he is so anxious about the future that he does not enjoy the present; the result being that he does not live in the present or the future; he lives as if he is never going to die, and then dies having never really lived."
The Dalai Lamai, when asked what surprised him most about humanity, answered:
"Man. Because he sacrifices his health in order to make money. Then he sacrifices money to recuperate his health. And then he is so anxious about the future that he does not enjoy the present; the result being that he does not live in the present or the future; he lives as if he is never going to die, and then dies having never really lived."
Wednesday, October 12, 2011
4th quarter projections for Oct 18th
Hello Folks,
It's that time again.. Apple reports numbers on October 18th which is next Tuesday. It will be somewhat somber without the presence of Steve Jobs, but Timmy boy will be his usual non-chalant self while the numbers speak for themselves. There has been much concern in the media and the blog-o-sphere about the delay of the much rumored iPhone 5. As it turns out, there was no iPhone 5 - Apple launched the iPhone 4s and sold a million of them on launch day. Another record, another day in the life of Apple. Of course, this is not news.. I'm merely repeating what everybody else has already said..
So how does a blogger write anything new about Apple? It's practically impossible. I mainly enjoy reading these bloggers: Andy Zaky (Bullish Cross) / Horace Deidu (Asymco), and Robert over at Posts at Eventide. Andy now charges for his opinions (rightfully so) and Robert is a wealth of statistics, and objective information that he freely posts for the world to consume.. A repository of information as he calls it. Horace is a guy that assimilates vast quantities of data, then draws these incredibly creative charts, which are accompanied by his equally creative commentary. Horace (Asymco) is a little more broad, he talks about the mobile industry, but Apple is usually a big part of his subject matter. Also - over at the Apple Finance board, there are a whole slew of intelligent opinions bantied about. This board has long term members that are experienced traders whether it be options, day trading, or buy and hold.. I check into these places on most days. Of course, I have to mention Apple 2.0 and Phillip Elmer Dewitt, at Fortune - If you are looking for info on Apple - PED's blog is the place to be.
There is a guy that cruises most of these sites by the name of Falkirk that writes very creative and interesting opinions on Apple as a company.. he's really insightful - you will see him comenting in most of these destinations. All of these websites are a click away from this blog.
My opinion on Apple stock is buy as much as you can, and hold as long as you can..
The weird thing about Apple is this:
Everybody waits and anticipates Apple's next big move. There are arguments on both sides bullish and bearish.. People go back and forth for months, but Apple never reveals their hand until the day they say they are going to announce something - Then they do just that. They take one hour or so to make a presentation, then they shut down and let the world argue over what they just presented for 3 or 4 months.. Usually the quarterly earnings calls get the most hoopla.
Consistent through all of this is one big thing. Apple keeps exceeding expectations when REAL numbers are published. We can argue all day long about the recent announcement of the iPhone 4s being not good enough.. They still sell a million in 24 hours and break another record. They just keep doing it over and over again. I don't see that trend stopping anytime soon. I've been saying this since I first started this blog. We've still got all of 2012 for this type of growth.. it won't start tapering off until end of 2013 / beginning of 2014 - there's just too much momentum, and market share to grab. I'm not saying the growth will stop at the end of 2013, you just won't see the 80% YOY growth in revenue / 100% growth in EPS anymore.
Ok - here's my prediction for Q4 - I sent these numbers to PED on September 24th, also at that time submitted to the AAPL independent analysts group that I belong to.
YOY in parenthesis
Revenue - $36,419,000,000 (79%)
EPS ----- $9.94 (114%)
iPhones - 26,750,000 (90%)
iPads - - 14,800,000 (261%)
Macs - - 4,750,000 (22%)
iPods - - - 7,450,000 (-18%)
Gross margin - 42.6%
Int'l sales - 66%
Of the 47 or so analysts polled on Fortune, my revenue is third highest.. The rest of my numbers have a similar rank. The gross margins will be that high because they have NOT changed the basic form of the iPad or iPhone. They changed the guts of the iPhone, but they did not create a case re-design.
For the record - I came in 4th place overall last quarter, 12th place prior quarter, and 8th the quarter before that. Like I said, there's 47 or so analysts in the smackdown now.
Q1 preliminary numbers..
Revenue - 46 b
EPS - 11.30
iPhones - 30m +
iPads - - 20m
Macs - - - 5.5m (33% growth)
ipods -- 9m
GM - - - 42%
Int'l sales - 70%
Finally 2010 - 2011 YOY stats (with my Q4 numbers added in)
Revenue - 78%
EPS - - 102%
iPhones - 105%
iPads - - 389%
Macs - - 22%
iPods - -15%
GM 2010 = 40.00%
GM 2011 = 40.80%
Astounding!
Thats it - see you online on the 18th during the conference call on one of the many live blogs..
It's that time again.. Apple reports numbers on October 18th which is next Tuesday. It will be somewhat somber without the presence of Steve Jobs, but Timmy boy will be his usual non-chalant self while the numbers speak for themselves. There has been much concern in the media and the blog-o-sphere about the delay of the much rumored iPhone 5. As it turns out, there was no iPhone 5 - Apple launched the iPhone 4s and sold a million of them on launch day. Another record, another day in the life of Apple. Of course, this is not news.. I'm merely repeating what everybody else has already said..
So how does a blogger write anything new about Apple? It's practically impossible. I mainly enjoy reading these bloggers: Andy Zaky (Bullish Cross) / Horace Deidu (Asymco), and Robert over at Posts at Eventide. Andy now charges for his opinions (rightfully so) and Robert is a wealth of statistics, and objective information that he freely posts for the world to consume.. A repository of information as he calls it. Horace is a guy that assimilates vast quantities of data, then draws these incredibly creative charts, which are accompanied by his equally creative commentary. Horace (Asymco) is a little more broad, he talks about the mobile industry, but Apple is usually a big part of his subject matter. Also - over at the Apple Finance board, there are a whole slew of intelligent opinions bantied about. This board has long term members that are experienced traders whether it be options, day trading, or buy and hold.. I check into these places on most days. Of course, I have to mention Apple 2.0 and Phillip Elmer Dewitt, at Fortune - If you are looking for info on Apple - PED's blog is the place to be.
There is a guy that cruises most of these sites by the name of Falkirk that writes very creative and interesting opinions on Apple as a company.. he's really insightful - you will see him comenting in most of these destinations. All of these websites are a click away from this blog.
My opinion on Apple stock is buy as much as you can, and hold as long as you can..
The weird thing about Apple is this:
Everybody waits and anticipates Apple's next big move. There are arguments on both sides bullish and bearish.. People go back and forth for months, but Apple never reveals their hand until the day they say they are going to announce something - Then they do just that. They take one hour or so to make a presentation, then they shut down and let the world argue over what they just presented for 3 or 4 months.. Usually the quarterly earnings calls get the most hoopla.
Consistent through all of this is one big thing. Apple keeps exceeding expectations when REAL numbers are published. We can argue all day long about the recent announcement of the iPhone 4s being not good enough.. They still sell a million in 24 hours and break another record. They just keep doing it over and over again. I don't see that trend stopping anytime soon. I've been saying this since I first started this blog. We've still got all of 2012 for this type of growth.. it won't start tapering off until end of 2013 / beginning of 2014 - there's just too much momentum, and market share to grab. I'm not saying the growth will stop at the end of 2013, you just won't see the 80% YOY growth in revenue / 100% growth in EPS anymore.
Ok - here's my prediction for Q4 - I sent these numbers to PED on September 24th, also at that time submitted to the AAPL independent analysts group that I belong to.
YOY in parenthesis
Revenue - $36,419,000,000 (79%)
EPS ----- $9.94 (114%)
iPhones - 26,750,000 (90%)
iPads - - 14,800,000 (261%)
Macs - - 4,750,000 (22%)
iPods - - - 7,450,000 (-18%)
Gross margin - 42.6%
Int'l sales - 66%
Of the 47 or so analysts polled on Fortune, my revenue is third highest.. The rest of my numbers have a similar rank. The gross margins will be that high because they have NOT changed the basic form of the iPad or iPhone. They changed the guts of the iPhone, but they did not create a case re-design.
For the record - I came in 4th place overall last quarter, 12th place prior quarter, and 8th the quarter before that. Like I said, there's 47 or so analysts in the smackdown now.
Q1 preliminary numbers..
Revenue - 46 b
EPS - 11.30
iPhones - 30m +
iPads - - 20m
Macs - - - 5.5m (33% growth)
ipods -- 9m
GM - - - 42%
Int'l sales - 70%
Finally 2010 - 2011 YOY stats (with my Q4 numbers added in)
Revenue - 78%
EPS - - 102%
iPhones - 105%
iPads - - 389%
Macs - - 22%
iPods - -15%
GM 2010 = 40.00%
GM 2011 = 40.80%
Astounding!
Thats it - see you online on the 18th during the conference call on one of the many live blogs..
Sunday, June 5, 2011
Preliminary numbers for the June quarter
Greetings,
We are about a month and a half away from the July news conference that Apple reports their Fiscal Q3 earnings. Here are a few statistics that might be interesting and my predictions.
Revenue - The last 5 Q3 year over year percentage increases and consecutive quarter increases are as follows: (YOY in blue)
2006 - 24% - 0%
2007 - 27% - 5%
2008 - 36% - 0%
2009 - 29% - 7%
2010 - 61% - 14%
2011 - 77% - 11% - projected..
27.830 billion is the number - driven by international sales of the iPhone and the full ramp up to fulfill "the mother of all backlogs" on the iPad.
EPS will be at 6.95 which is a 98% YOY increase
iPhones - 18.900 million - 125% YOY increase
iPads - - - -9.810 million - 200% YOY increase
Macs - - - - 4.337 million - 25% YOY increase
iPods - - - - 9.000 million - 4% YOY decrease
GM - 40.7%
International sales - 65%
I know that the macro economic view right now is quite bearish with the US job growth numbers in the tank, coupled with the woeful real estate market. You also have the Japan disaster and concerns about the Euro, Greece, and the rest of that quagmire. I do not believe that any of these factors restrict Apple's ability to grow their sales. They continue to build stores all over the US and the world. They are expanding every day, and will continue to expand until they reach world dominance. It's the international sales that are fueling the massive growth right now, and this will continue at this pace until they have reached saturation in China. What's crazy is that Apple is no where near China saturation. They're working on it, but they have a ways to go. What will it look like when China has half as many stores that the US has? USA has roughly 236 Apple stores, and there are another 87 spread out around the rest of the world with only 5 stores in China. Can you imagine 118 stores in China? We've truly got a couple more years of this type of growth.
Speaking of international sales - here is the history since 2006 in quarters from Fiscal Q1 to fiscal Q4:
all numbers are percentages
2006 - 40 / 43 / 39 / 40
2007 - 42 / 43 / 40 / 40
2008 - 45 / 44 / 42 / 41
2009 - 46 / 46 / 44 / 46
2010 - 58 / 58 / 52 / 57
2011 - 62 / 58 / 65....
Just look at the pattern - In all of 2010, international sales said good bye to the 40% range, and in Q1 of 2011, broke through 60% for the first time ever! At this rate, we'll break through 70% in 2012 by Q2 or Q3... because of the China dynamic.
Here's another thought -
I invested in Apple back in 2004 because I wanted to bet on who would win the battle of media convergence. Of course, there will be more than one winner, but I wanted to pick the one company that had the vision to converge television and internet with movies and everything else, and find a way to deliver it seamlessly to us consumers. I picked Apple because of the way that they entered the music business with the iTunes store, and of course the ipod. It looked to me at that time, that Apple had a long term vision, and I thought that they had the biggest head start by designing world class software with the usual excellent hardware designs. In addition to that, they already had ALL those people used to buying media through iTunes. It just looked like they were the ones to do it.
Now enter the iPhone in 2007. Apple decides to give you the ability to make phone calls and access your media all in one device. Add the app store with 300,000 choices of tools and games to use, and I'm starting to see this convergence thing unfold before my eyes..
The iPad is next in 2010 - Facetime and TV with movies, and everything else - all on a 10" screen..
OK - while this is happening, the majority of people are still hooked to cable and satellite. But guess what? People use their DVR's and watch shows at their own convenience, in the time that is available to them. My wife and I do that.. We DVR the shows we like and watch them later for all of the conveniences that we all enjoy. You can plan your life the way you want to - Exercise and play whenever you want.. your shows are waiting for you.
The problem with all of this is - how do you manage all of this? It's too expensive and It's all scattered on different devices, and I don't know about the rest of you, but my hard drive fills up fast.
Tomorrow - Enter the iCloud - Another giant leap towards full convergence.
Imagine this.... 3 years from now:
You come home from work after a a hard day.. You throw on your running / walking shoes, and run/walk around town for 45 minutes or so.. That's done, now you want to sit down with your family, eat and watch your favorite show.
Right next to your chair is one of your iPads. You check out your iCloud service and see that you have a couple of your favorite shows that have been automatically downloaded. (Of course, you already knew this - you were expecting it, because YOU set it up)
You tell iCloud that you want to watch this show on iTV - Yes, that's right - your iTV. It looks just like your iPad, except it's 40" and is hanging on the wall like any flat screen TV. So you put your iPad down, and turn on your iTV to watch your show. Junior doesn't like to watch Justified, so he goes in the other room, and watches what he wants on his iPad, or maybe he wants to do some gaming.
This is the future of our world, and Apple is winning big.
Dennis Hildebrand
We are about a month and a half away from the July news conference that Apple reports their Fiscal Q3 earnings. Here are a few statistics that might be interesting and my predictions.
Revenue - The last 5 Q3 year over year percentage increases and consecutive quarter increases are as follows: (YOY in blue)
2006 - 24% - 0%
2007 - 27% - 5%
2008 - 36% - 0%
2009 - 29% - 7%
2010 - 61% - 14%
2011 - 77% - 11% - projected..
27.830 billion is the number - driven by international sales of the iPhone and the full ramp up to fulfill "the mother of all backlogs" on the iPad.
EPS will be at 6.95 which is a 98% YOY increase
iPhones - 18.900 million - 125% YOY increase
iPads - - - -9.810 million - 200% YOY increase
Macs - - - - 4.337 million - 25% YOY increase
iPods - - - - 9.000 million - 4% YOY decrease
GM - 40.7%
International sales - 65%
I know that the macro economic view right now is quite bearish with the US job growth numbers in the tank, coupled with the woeful real estate market. You also have the Japan disaster and concerns about the Euro, Greece, and the rest of that quagmire. I do not believe that any of these factors restrict Apple's ability to grow their sales. They continue to build stores all over the US and the world. They are expanding every day, and will continue to expand until they reach world dominance. It's the international sales that are fueling the massive growth right now, and this will continue at this pace until they have reached saturation in China. What's crazy is that Apple is no where near China saturation. They're working on it, but they have a ways to go. What will it look like when China has half as many stores that the US has? USA has roughly 236 Apple stores, and there are another 87 spread out around the rest of the world with only 5 stores in China. Can you imagine 118 stores in China? We've truly got a couple more years of this type of growth.
Speaking of international sales - here is the history since 2006 in quarters from Fiscal Q1 to fiscal Q4:
all numbers are percentages
2006 - 40 / 43 / 39 / 40
2007 - 42 / 43 / 40 / 40
2008 - 45 / 44 / 42 / 41
2009 - 46 / 46 / 44 / 46
2010 - 58 / 58 / 52 / 57
2011 - 62 / 58 / 65....
Just look at the pattern - In all of 2010, international sales said good bye to the 40% range, and in Q1 of 2011, broke through 60% for the first time ever! At this rate, we'll break through 70% in 2012 by Q2 or Q3... because of the China dynamic.
Here's another thought -
I invested in Apple back in 2004 because I wanted to bet on who would win the battle of media convergence. Of course, there will be more than one winner, but I wanted to pick the one company that had the vision to converge television and internet with movies and everything else, and find a way to deliver it seamlessly to us consumers. I picked Apple because of the way that they entered the music business with the iTunes store, and of course the ipod. It looked to me at that time, that Apple had a long term vision, and I thought that they had the biggest head start by designing world class software with the usual excellent hardware designs. In addition to that, they already had ALL those people used to buying media through iTunes. It just looked like they were the ones to do it.
Now enter the iPhone in 2007. Apple decides to give you the ability to make phone calls and access your media all in one device. Add the app store with 300,000 choices of tools and games to use, and I'm starting to see this convergence thing unfold before my eyes..
The iPad is next in 2010 - Facetime and TV with movies, and everything else - all on a 10" screen..
OK - while this is happening, the majority of people are still hooked to cable and satellite. But guess what? People use their DVR's and watch shows at their own convenience, in the time that is available to them. My wife and I do that.. We DVR the shows we like and watch them later for all of the conveniences that we all enjoy. You can plan your life the way you want to - Exercise and play whenever you want.. your shows are waiting for you.
The problem with all of this is - how do you manage all of this? It's too expensive and It's all scattered on different devices, and I don't know about the rest of you, but my hard drive fills up fast.
Tomorrow - Enter the iCloud - Another giant leap towards full convergence.
Imagine this.... 3 years from now:
You come home from work after a a hard day.. You throw on your running / walking shoes, and run/walk around town for 45 minutes or so.. That's done, now you want to sit down with your family, eat and watch your favorite show.
Right next to your chair is one of your iPads. You check out your iCloud service and see that you have a couple of your favorite shows that have been automatically downloaded. (Of course, you already knew this - you were expecting it, because YOU set it up)
You tell iCloud that you want to watch this show on iTV - Yes, that's right - your iTV. It looks just like your iPad, except it's 40" and is hanging on the wall like any flat screen TV. So you put your iPad down, and turn on your iTV to watch your show. Junior doesn't like to watch Justified, so he goes in the other room, and watches what he wants on his iPad, or maybe he wants to do some gaming.
This is the future of our world, and Apple is winning big.
Dennis Hildebrand
Sunday, April 24, 2011
Scoreboard time
We made it through another smackdown event (unscathed) and it's high time that I recap this event.
Outta the gate, I guess the first thing to mention is the quarter itself. The only disappointment that can be seen in the numbers is the iPad units sold. I projected just short of 7 million units sold, as did many of my blogger and AFB compadres. Is there safety in numbers? Well no not really, but I believe that we all are a little bit miffed about Apple only selling 4.69 million units. Almost all of us had the revenue well over 25 billion, and the shortfall in iPads is the reason a lot of us missed.
Still - At the end of the day... us amateurs ruled, and put the pros to shame - Much thanks to PED for publishing the results in his national publication.
On revenue and EPS, I came in 12th (of 48)
All categories - I finished 20th (of 48)
My 12th place finish in the main 2 metrics of revenue and EPS, put me high on the Deagol overall rank, I'm proud to say - Top place if I'm reading correctly. You can read about that here, along with his excellent analysis and breakdown of the quarter and the smackdown. Be sure to check out his cool scatter chart that provides an excellent visual to the overall results. I'm closest to the bullseye! Does that make me first place?
The best news of the post earnings call was the fact that AAPL climbed to 350 and change on Thursday.. (from as low as 326 earlier in the week). My opinion, is we will blow through the all time high by the end of this week, and continue to climb as new products release..
Ok - let's see how I did:
Revenue
Dennis - 25.505b
Actual - 24.670b
I overshot by less than a billion! (In AAPL parlance, 1 billion is a small number) Last quarter I missed by over 1 billion, so that's measurable improvement. B
EPS
Dennis - 6.21
Actual - 6.40
Undershot by 19 cents.. Last quarter I overshot by .18 cents... didn't improve but still a B
iPhones
Dennis - 17.36m
Actual - 18.65m
I undershot by 1.29m.. Last quarter I overshot by 2.11m... Measurable improvement B-
iPods
Dennis - 9.98m
Actual - 9.09m
Overshot by 890 thousand.. Last quarter I undershot by 550 thousand.. My performance declined in this category, but not by much .. B-
Macs
Dennis - 3.87 m
Actual - 3.76 m
Overshot by 110,000 - Last quarter, I overshot by 340,000 - More measurable improvement and I continue to excel in this category.. A
iPads
Dennis - 6.95
Actual - 4.69
Overshot by 2.26 million.. Yikes... no safety in numbers - Last quarter I came within 80,000! (overshot) I could make a lot of excuses here but I won't. A miss is a miss.. F+
How's that for a positive spin eh? An F+....
Gross margin
Dennis - 40.2
Actual - 41.4
Undershot by 120 basis points - Last quarter I hit it right on the money! No CNBC for me this time... C
I give myself a B as an overall grade for Q2 FY11 - (even with the ipad F+)
Like I said above.. after the day is done, and Tim Cook and gang report what they did.... The bottom line is - it was a BLOW OUT quarter.. I don't care how you try to spin it - 24 and a half billion is an incredible number.. So is $6.40.. I'm running out of superlatives to describe this companies performance.
I will admit that I engaged in a little market timing and sold all of my shares before they slid all the way down.. then got back in. I now have several more shares than I had before. That makes me happy. I'm all in now and will be unless something happens... The stop loss tool is a wonderful thing.
My price targets remain the same.. (1 revision - May 1st low is 350 instead of 335..)
It's going to be a great summer!
Thanks for checking in..
Dennis Hildebrand
Outta the gate, I guess the first thing to mention is the quarter itself. The only disappointment that can be seen in the numbers is the iPad units sold. I projected just short of 7 million units sold, as did many of my blogger and AFB compadres. Is there safety in numbers? Well no not really, but I believe that we all are a little bit miffed about Apple only selling 4.69 million units. Almost all of us had the revenue well over 25 billion, and the shortfall in iPads is the reason a lot of us missed.
Still - At the end of the day... us amateurs ruled, and put the pros to shame - Much thanks to PED for publishing the results in his national publication.
On revenue and EPS, I came in 12th (of 48)
All categories - I finished 20th (of 48)
My 12th place finish in the main 2 metrics of revenue and EPS, put me high on the Deagol overall rank, I'm proud to say - Top place if I'm reading correctly. You can read about that here, along with his excellent analysis and breakdown of the quarter and the smackdown. Be sure to check out his cool scatter chart that provides an excellent visual to the overall results. I'm closest to the bullseye! Does that make me first place?
The best news of the post earnings call was the fact that AAPL climbed to 350 and change on Thursday.. (from as low as 326 earlier in the week). My opinion, is we will blow through the all time high by the end of this week, and continue to climb as new products release..
Ok - let's see how I did:
Revenue
Dennis - 25.505b
Actual - 24.670b
I overshot by less than a billion! (In AAPL parlance, 1 billion is a small number) Last quarter I missed by over 1 billion, so that's measurable improvement. B
EPS
Dennis - 6.21
Actual - 6.40
Undershot by 19 cents.. Last quarter I overshot by .18 cents... didn't improve but still a B
iPhones
Dennis - 17.36m
Actual - 18.65m
I undershot by 1.29m.. Last quarter I overshot by 2.11m... Measurable improvement B-
iPods
Dennis - 9.98m
Actual - 9.09m
Overshot by 890 thousand.. Last quarter I undershot by 550 thousand.. My performance declined in this category, but not by much .. B-
Macs
Dennis - 3.87 m
Actual - 3.76 m
Overshot by 110,000 - Last quarter, I overshot by 340,000 - More measurable improvement and I continue to excel in this category.. A
iPads
Dennis - 6.95
Actual - 4.69
Overshot by 2.26 million.. Yikes... no safety in numbers - Last quarter I came within 80,000! (overshot) I could make a lot of excuses here but I won't. A miss is a miss.. F+
How's that for a positive spin eh? An F+....
Gross margin
Dennis - 40.2
Actual - 41.4
Undershot by 120 basis points - Last quarter I hit it right on the money! No CNBC for me this time... C
I give myself a B as an overall grade for Q2 FY11 - (even with the ipad F+)
Like I said above.. after the day is done, and Tim Cook and gang report what they did.... The bottom line is - it was a BLOW OUT quarter.. I don't care how you try to spin it - 24 and a half billion is an incredible number.. So is $6.40.. I'm running out of superlatives to describe this companies performance.
I will admit that I engaged in a little market timing and sold all of my shares before they slid all the way down.. then got back in. I now have several more shares than I had before. That makes me happy. I'm all in now and will be unless something happens... The stop loss tool is a wonderful thing.
My price targets remain the same.. (1 revision - May 1st low is 350 instead of 335..)
Date Low High Target
May 1, 2011 350 400 380
Aug 1, 2011 370 430 415
Nov 1, 2011 415 480 460
Feb 1, 2012 460 540 520
It's going to be a great summer!
Thanks for checking in..
Dennis Hildebrand
Monday, March 28, 2011
It's earnings time again....
It's earnings time again, so that means it's time to project what I believe Apple accomplished last quarter. As most of you know, there are some of us amateur analysts (bloggers) that are focused on predicting the key metrics that drive Apple's growth.. Also, Phillip Elmer Dewitt at Fortune.com publishes these results, pitting us against the pros in what he has dubbed - "The earnings smackdown."
This has turned into quite an event every 3 months - So much so, that some of us got National TV exposure on CNBC. That blew me away. Last quarter I hit the gross margin on the button, and because of that, my name was thrown into the neon lights.. This is funny - and actually quite fun. One of the amateurs that receives much praise and publicity is Daniel Tello over at Deagol's Apple Model. Mr Tello has come up with a ranked list that we call the Deagol rankings. I currently rank 25th out of 40 on this list. BUT - I came in at the 8th spot last quarter.. While this is exciting being involved with these guys, I'm a little disapointed in my overall rank, and I'm absoutely motivated to improve my position.
So with no further ado... Here's my numbers... with some explanations..
Revenue - $25,505b 89% increase
EPS - - - - - $6.21 86% increase
iPhones - - 17.360m 98% increase
iPads - - - 6.950m NA
Macs - - - 3.704m 26% increase
iPods - - - 9.980m 9% decrease
GM - - - - - 40.2%
This has been an extremely difficult quarter to predict. So many varibles to weigh in on..
I have weighed all of these variables and scoured the internet for facts and figures, and I feel pretty good about these numbers.. Some might say that an 89% and 86% increase in revenue and EPS respectively is too aggresive.. I think not.
Some interesting facts:
iPad sales and increased iPhone sales adds an additional 10 billion in revenue to last years Q2 total.
Now I'd like to review a few predictions that I made back in September 2010. (5 months back) Apple's share price was at $282. Today it closed at $350. Here's what I said:
Apple will open up the iPhone to other carriers in the first 6 months of 2011.
This has turned into quite an event every 3 months - So much so, that some of us got National TV exposure on CNBC. That blew me away. Last quarter I hit the gross margin on the button, and because of that, my name was thrown into the neon lights.. This is funny - and actually quite fun. One of the amateurs that receives much praise and publicity is Daniel Tello over at Deagol's Apple Model. Mr Tello has come up with a ranked list that we call the Deagol rankings. I currently rank 25th out of 40 on this list. BUT - I came in at the 8th spot last quarter.. While this is exciting being involved with these guys, I'm a little disapointed in my overall rank, and I'm absoutely motivated to improve my position.
So with no further ado... Here's my numbers... with some explanations..
Revenue - $25,505b 89% increase
EPS - - - - - $6.21 86% increase
iPhones - - 17.360m 98% increase
iPads - - - 6.950m NA
Macs - - - 3.704m 26% increase
iPods - - - 9.980m 9% decrease
GM - - - - - 40.2%
This has been an extremely difficult quarter to predict. So many varibles to weigh in on..
- The Verizon iPhone launch
- The iPad 2 launch
- 2 day international launch for iPad 2
- Crazy demand for both products
- Discounted prices on iPad 1 and iPhone 3G
- Supply contstraints on both products (some believe this is a myth)
- The disaster in Japan
I have weighed all of these variables and scoured the internet for facts and figures, and I feel pretty good about these numbers.. Some might say that an 89% and 86% increase in revenue and EPS respectively is too aggresive.. I think not.
Some interesting facts:
iPad sales and increased iPhone sales adds an additional 10 billion in revenue to last years Q2 total.
- There was no iPad last Q2 - It did not even exist. Everybody was waiting for it, but it did not launch until April.. The iPad added 4.5 billion in revenue this quarter alone. That's roughly 36% of the total 13.5 billion that reported last year at this time. WOW - incredible.
- iPhone sales have doubled - This adds another 5.5 billion to that 13.5 billion reported last year.
Now I'd like to review a few predictions that I made back in September 2010. (5 months back) Apple's share price was at $282. Today it closed at $350. Here's what I said:
Apple will open up the iPhone to other carriers in the first 6 months of 2011.
- I was right about this one, but - I said that T-Mobile would be first.. Of course I included Verizon, but I did make that statement about T-Mobile. Now it looks like T-Mobile will be brought into the mix with the ATT deal... I also said that the inclusion of other carriers would be timed with the launch of iPhone 5. Apple surprised me by bringing Verizon on board in February.. (earlier than I thought)
Apple will sell 33 million iPads in FY11.
- With the 6.9 million I'm saying they have sold, added to the 7.3 million last quarter, we are well on our way to eclipsing that 33 million estimation. My estimation looks to be a little short. The iPad is the biggest hit that Apple has had yet. I am increasing my estimation for FY 11. Apple will sell 9.8 million in Q3 and 16.7 million in Q4 to bring the total to 40 million. Too bold? I think not. Here's a fact for you. The iPhone - in it's first 2 YOY quarters - increased sales by 166% and 516%. This was Q3 and Q4 of FY 08. These are the same 2 sequential quarters for the iPads first 2 YOY sales. I'm saying the iPad will increase sales by 200% and 309% in Q3 and Q4 11 respectively.
- I was woefully short on this estimation - it looks like we will hit 80 million iPhones in this current fiscal year - I have Q3 at 20 million, and Q4 at 27 million iPhones sold..
Apple will sell 17 million MACs in FY11
- Right on target, I believe - Q3 will be at 4.3 million, and Q4 at 4.8 million. We are sitting on 8 million after this quarter.. add em up.
90 Billion revenue in FY11
- 90 billion easily.. in fact we'll do 110 billion in FY 11
EPS for FY2011 - $22.50
- We'll do $27
- January 12 price will be closer to $500 according to the Apple Finance board index.
I made those prognostications for a reason; I wanted to see how close I could get by publishing my best futures bet if you will.. Amazing really - I thought I was making bold predictions at that time.. Now it seems as if those numbers were incredibly simple to stick on the wall.. It didn't feel that way 5 months ago.
Revenue and EPS for the next 2 quarters:
Q3 - $28.6 b / $6.90
Q4 - $35.3 b / $8.12
No underestimation this time..... China is real!
Thanks for stopping by,
Dennis
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