Sunday, September 9, 2012

Braeburn Group 1 year price target

I belong to a group of independent Apple analysts called the Braeburn Group.  Every quarter we publish a new 12 month price target.  This is an average of the analysts that participate.  Here's the link. My personal 1 year target is still 910, which is documented on my last post.

Just for fun, let's review my prediction on May 29th 2012.  I posted the following price targets on that date:

Sept 1 - $46.24 = $624.24 (13.02)
Dec 1 -  $54.69 = $738.31 (15.50)
Mar 1 -  $63.32 = $854.82 (22.50)
Jun 1 -  $69.02 = $931.77 (18.00)

What was the price on May 29th? - $574.00 at the close.  We closed on Sept 1 at $668.60.  I missed by 42 bucks / share, even a mega bull like me was caught off guard with the huge run up in the last few months.

Weird - TTM earnings are at 42.55 - Missed that by $3.69 lower, but the share price is higher. I just didn't expect the PE expansion to be like this..  I hope this is a trend that continues..

Here's some more fun - On September 30th 2010,  with Apple's share price at $283.75, I posted that Apple's share price would hit 400 / share by January 2012.  Closing price on January 3, 2012 - $409 / share.. not bad for an amateur.

I will keep checking in to see how my May 29th targets fare, even though I adjust / update as the year progresses.



   Dennis